Futurisca
Ask almost any tool what happens if a large economy restricts an export, and you get either a paragraph of hedged prose or a single number with no reasoning under it. Neither can be argued with, and neither of them says what it does not know.
The constraintNo number is shown without its source. Every figure is marked as curated, partial or sourced, and there is a page for the three things the model will never do.
Founder, model architect, designer and engineer. The seven blocks, the world dataset down to the town, the three map views, the scenario library, the interface and the public site.
- 238 countries and territories
- 169 ways to read the world
- 54,000 places on the map
- 250 futures per run
- 01Four instruments in one: the map, the desk, the sandbox, the reasoning
- 02238 countries and territories, six categories each
- 0354,000 states, counties, cities and towns under them
- 0443 fields, five readings each: 169 ways to read the map
- 05Flat, globe and network, the last one drawn as an economy
- 06594 flows across nine kinds, in three directions
- 07Seven coupled blocks, stepped a year at a time
- 08Markets that clear on price: energy, food, semiconductors
- 09A trade network with tariffs, controls and freight
- 10Money: Phillips curve, Taylor rule, Okun's law
- 11The state: debt, risk premium, financing crisis hazard
- 12People and power: births, migration, stability, conflict
- 13250 futures per run, clustered and named
Explore the futures that could emerge from the decisions we make today. A computational laboratory for the future, and a simulation tool rather than a forecasting service.
It starts as a map of the world at every level: 238 countries and territories, a thousand states and provinces, four and a half thousand counties and departments, four and a half thousand cities of a hundred thousand people and forty-four thousand towns below them. Forty-three fields, five readings each, which is 169 ways to read it, laid over each other as you like. Flat on satellite, a globe computed per frame, or a network that draws the world economy instead of the world map, with 594 flows across nine kinds.
Then you change one thing and watch what follows. Seven coupled blocks step a year at a time. Markets that clear on price, where a fab takes four years to answer a shortage. A trade network carrying tariffs, export controls and freight. Output from productivity, labour, capital and energy. Money on a Phillips curve and a Taylor rule. A state with debt, a risk premium that grows with it, and a financing crisis that is a hazard rather than a certainty. Births, ageing, migration, stability and the risk of conflict.
One run returns 250 futures, clustered and named, because the range is the answer and a point estimate a decade out is a guess wearing a suit. Growth, inflation and unemployment come back as a sum of named terms, so every number can be opened and read down to the series under it. No number is shown without its source. It is free, it needs no signup, and it runs in the browser; saving runs, longer horizons and written briefings are what is paid for.